Aki 2022 Power Rankings

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Once again, it is time to roll out the Power Rankings! These are still best seen as a rough guide to who's coming in hot, rather than any prediction about who will perform well at Aki. This may be even more true this time out, Since the Nagoya basho saw a significant chunk of rikishi have to pull out early for COVID protocols, the win totals were slightly depressed. On the other hand, so many wrestlers had to leave that it may still be helpful.

Hey, it's still fun. As a reminder, here is how these are calculated:

• Take the Fantasy Basho score (2 points for each win, 1 point for a kinboshi, 1 point for a Special Prize) for a tournament, adding 10 points for a yusho and 5 for a Jun-Yusho

• Add up the last five scores with a modifier. Multiply the most recent basho score by 5, the next most recent by 4, the third most recent by 3, the fourth most recent by 2, and the fifth most recent by 1

• For basho in Juryo, take the win total for that tournament and multiply by 1.5. For basho below Juryo, take the win total from that basho.

• Add a bonus score, which is the budget number for that rikishi in the upcoming basho

And now, here are the Power Rankings, followed by some brief commentary:

NOTES:

• Terunofuji is way ahead of the pack, even though he "just" got 11 wins and a Jun-Yusho in July. He is the only Yokozuna, and he has generally performed like it over the past year.

• Nagoya's champion, Ichinojo, sits sixth on this list for one very good reason. He has a zero for May because he missed due to a stable-wide absence. That break may also have helped his performance in July. Really, if he had done his usual 8 or 9 wins in each of the last two basho, he might be in the same position on this list.

• The top five here are fairly well separated from each other, although they got here in different ways. Terunofuji is covered above. Wakatakakage got a Yusho in March, and that's certainly helping. Abi has both big numbers and steady performance in Sanyaku. Takakeisho is an Ozeki who asserted himself last time out. Daieisho has had consistently strong performances for the last year. Ichinojo is coming off a Yusho. Maybe you can talk yourself into any of them as your ace.

• A name much lower here than on the Banzuke is Meisei. He had his best basho in awhile in July, and it still wasn't spectacular. Maegashira #2 may be too much of a challenge. A similar principle, but less dramatic, probably applies to Takarafuji.

• This chart says something about the promotees for Aki. Ryuden always had the talent of a Maegashira, and he was performing as a Maegashira would against lower level competition. For the two Maegashira #16, the Power Rankings like Hiradoumi a lot more. He's just been consistently better in Juryo of late compared to Mitoryu.

• Of all the rankings to discount, don't trust Takayasu's the most here. Last time he sat out a whole basho, he followed that up by going to a playoff for the yusho. Both zeroes are listed here.

• I also don't trust Sadanoumi is this good, but he has done well recently. He is also just outside the joi-jin for Aki, so maybe his schedule won't be terrible.