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Nagoya 2022 Power Rankings

Sign up for Fantasy Basho on Fantasizr for the Nagoya basho now. As you think about your team, look over these Power Rankings to see how everyone's doing coming into Nagoya.

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Once again, it is time for Power Rankings. Yet for the first time in a long time, there are no changes to the formula. Just like for Natsu, these Power Rankings are made with the following formula:

  • Take the Fantasy Basho score (2 points for each win, 1 point for a kinboshi, 1 point for a Special Prize) for a tournament, adding 10 points for a yusho and 5 for a Jun-Yusho

  • Add up the last five scores with a modifier. Multiply the most recent basho score by 5, the next most recent by 4, the third most recent by 3, the fourth most recent by 2, and the fifth most recent by 1

  • For basho in Juryo, take the win total for that tournament and multiply by 1.5

  • Add a bonus score, which is the budget number for that rikishi in the upcoming basho

Below is a chart showing the Power Rankings going into Nagoya, showing the score for each basho over the last year. These should NOT be read as predicting a yusho race order or a guess at who will win any individual matchups. This is a read on how rikishi stack up coming into the basho, nothing more and nothing less.



NOTES:

  • It seems obvious to say Terunofuji is the top rikishi coming in to Nagoya, but the way he leads every other rikishi is telling. The gap between Terunofuji at Number 1 and Wakatakakage at Number 2 is about the same as the gap between Wakatakakage and Takanosho at Number 8. Then it is roughly the same as the gap between Takanosho and Chiyotairyu at 25. Terunofuji has been performing so much better than everyone else that he is in his own universe. And he arguably hasn't even been at his best recently.

  • The next two rikishi are the two yusho winners from March and January, Wakatakakage and Mitakeumi. No one else on the board gets a yusho bonus besides Terunofuji, Wakatakakage, and Mitakeumi. Never forget that when looking at the rankings.

  • For a Komusubi, Hoshoryu feels slightly low. This is a nice reminder he has not had the standout basho that rikishi like Abi, Daieisho, or Kotonowaka have had recently. He's been consistently above average, which is good but not the same as dominating at some point.

  • The only debutant for Nagoya, Nishikifuji, is ahead of nine other rikishi. That's no guarantee he will stay up, but it shows he won't be hopeless as a Maegashira. Essentially, Nishikifuji's track record is no worse than the other lower Maegashira. He's coming up on the back of a Juryo Yusho, plus he never had a bad basho in the last year.

  • Speaking of bad basho, that basically fuels the last handful of rikishi on this chart. A formula like this will inevitably say that missing matches and losing a bunch of matches is the same. Considering it's supposed to say how someone has been doing, that's probably fair. If that makes you think Ichinojo or Onosho are underrated here, I wouldn't argue.

  • Let this chart also be a reminder that Kotonowaka, Takanosho, and Kiribayama all have performed well enough in recent basho to be Sanyaku for Nagoya. The only reason they are not is because the Sanyaku did not fall apart and make space at Natsu. Depending on your take on Takakeisho and Shodai, who are still Ozeki, you can see the Ozeki through Maegashira #2 as essentially an even group.

If you're puzzling over your Day One selection, maybe this will help. At the very least, this should give you something to think about.


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