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Fantasy Basho

Nagoya 2024 Day Eleven




Public League Leaderboard

Scores from Fantasizr.


Yusho Arasoi

10 Wins

01 Yokozuna East Terunofuji


8 Wins

02 Ozeki #1 East Kotozakura

03 Ozeki #1 West Hoshoryu

20 Maegashira #6 East Takanosho

33 Maegashira #12 West Churanoumi

36 Maegashira #14 East Wakatakakage


Notable Maneuvers

Saktottari. Yes, Sakatottari, the arm-bar throw counter. Which means Abi had Hoshoryu going with an arm-bar, but Hoshoryu slipped sideways and performed his own throw. This rare kimarite was last seen in Makuuchi in September 2019, when Terutsuyoshi beat Nishikigi with it on the final day.


Match of the Day

01 Yokozuna East Terunofuji versus 06 Sekiwake #1 West Onosato

It wasn't the most exciting, longest, or complicated match, but it was hugely impactful. Terunofuji seemed to have Onosato stalled and locked up after the tachiai. And then Onosato slipped his right hand under Terunofuji's grip, broke the hold, and went sideways. That sent the Yokozuna down, giving Onosato a key win and Terunofuji his first loss.


Recap

Terunofuji finally hit the clay. His procession to the Emperor's Cup is stalled, and his work just got a little more difficult. The air of invulnerability around the Yokozuna is gone. He can be beat. That should take nothing away from Onosato. Keeping his balance and composure while engaged with the Kaiju is a feat in itself. Then he showed excellent technique and match awareness to hit a nice move. Terunofuji is beatable, but anyone who does beat him will need to be very good.


Of course, the yusho race is in a similar state to how it was before the matches started. Kotozakura lost to Kirishima, which means that Terunofuji still has a two-match lead. Now he has five rikishi just below him on the leaderboard, rather than Kotozakura being the only one in second place. We can overrate Kotozakura's Day Eleven loss too much. Kirishima hasn't been great this basho, but he's going all out and has Kotozakura's number historically. Also, Kotozakura is tied at 8-3 with Hoshoryu, Takanosho, Churanoumi, and Wakatakakage, because every match in a basho counts.


Terunofuji needs to go 2-2 over his last four days, while any of the 8-3 rikishi must win out, just to see a playoff. If he goes 4-0 or 3-1, the Yokozuna still comfortably wins the yusho. And there is no chance that all 8-3 rikishi will win out. In fact, one of Kotozakura or Hoshoryu will have 4 losses after Day Twelve. They square off somewhat earlier than expected. The Ozeki may be given the position of gatekeeping whatever Maegashira on 8 Wins notches another victory or two.


Wakatakakage would be the best story to get a Yusho or Jun-yusho, as he is in his first Makuuchi basho since an injury that sent him down from Sekiwake. In fact, he secured his first Makuuchi kachi-koshi in a year and a half with his 8th win. Takanosho and Churanoumi don't have quite the same compelling narrative, but they've earned their spots in the yusho race. It's also not like Terunofuji, Hoshoryu, and Kotozakura have simple schedules. They will have a round-robin before the end of the basho. Also, Hoshoryu and Terunofuji still need to see Onosato. And none of them have seen Takakeisho, who is fighting for his Ozeki rank and is capable of beating anyone.


Yet Terunofuji can still make all of these conversations academic. His loss to Onosato provides extra intrigue, but he still has a cushion in the yusho race. Onosato may well one day be a Yokozuna like Terunofuji. (His Ozeki chances for September may not be quite shut after that win.) A loss to him isn't a sign Terunofuji can't handle it anymore. Additionally, no one is there to take away the yusho if he does drop one more. This is still Terunofuji's basho. We just get to see a little more chance for someone else to make it their own.

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